facebook-pixel

Commentary: Trump could use the deal-making acumen he brags about to move U.S. forward in overseas trade, economic negotiations

Norwegian Borge Brende President, Member of the Managing Board of the World Economic Forum, WEF, gestures during a press conference, in Cologny near Geneva, Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2018. The World Economic Forum today unveiled the program for its Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, including the key participants, themes and goals. (Laurent Gillieron/Keystone via AP)

President Trump will soon bring his vision of America’s evolving international role to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. At the same time, the penultimate gathering of NAFTA negotiators will convene across the Atlantic in Montreal.

Both at home and abroad, Trump is currently one of the most unpopular U.S. leaders in modern history. Overseas, he is widely perceived as an economic nationalist who is also determined to weaken traditional U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia.

At Davos, Trump could recommit the United States to its pivotal role in NATO and a strengthened trans-Atlantic alliance. He could surprise his audience by stating that the U.S. will re-enter negotiations leading to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). During his first week in office, Trump rejected outright the finalized TPP accord, handing China a great victory in its quest to dominate economic relations in the fast-growing Asian-Pacific region.

In addition, Trump could rejuvenate the moribund Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) discussions, helping to solidify ties between the United States and the European Union. He might add that the United States, predicated on certain changes, would even reconsider its opposition to the Paris climate-accord pact. Presently, the U.S. is the only country in the world not endorsing this environmental accord.

The original TPP would have also modernized the NAFTA accord between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. NAFTA is the world’s largest free-trade area and has been in effect for almost a quarter century. If Trump were to renew the U.S. pledge to finalize the TPP, he would also bolster chances for the successful conclusion of the NAFTA discussions scheduled for Montreal.

Of course, Trump is unlikely to make such bold statements in Davos. However, he could emphasize that international economic relations and the alliance systems spearheaded by the United States in the post-World War II period are still very important to his administration. It would even be acceptable for him to brag that his deal-making acumen would lead to the very best TPP, TTIP, NAFTA, and Paris agreements ever negotiated.

The world is becoming so much more complex and interdependent. In 2016, using the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) formula favored by most economists, the U.S. share of global GDP slipped to 15.5 percent, versus 40 percent as recently as 1960. At 15.5 percent, the U.S. portion of the world’s GDP is at about the same level as in 1900.

Problems facing the world are beyond the capacity of any one nation to solve unilaterally, even an American superpower. National governments must collaborate across borders to solve the challenges facing their constituents who carry forth with their daily lives in their local communities.

Trump can claim that he will get the very best deal for Americans, but this will not occur by reinforcing a Fortress America mentality of turning inward and rejecting regional and international cooperation. Davos and Montreal could be watershed events leading to renewed U.S. involvement in North America and the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific regions.

Earl Fry

Earl Fry is a professor of political science at Brigham Young University who is currently a research professor at BYU’s London Centre.